Fantasy Fore: The Masters

The truth when it comes to golf, from hacker to tour pro, is that once you've proved you have "it," there's always a chance that you can get "it" back, even if you've lost "it" for quite a while.

Exhibit A of this can be found by observing the winner of the Shell Houston Open this past week, Johnson Wagner. While much of the coverage of Wagner's win against a pretty strong field in Humble, Texas, focused on the fact that it was his first tour victory, fantasy golf players almost certainly remember Wagner as the highly touted rookie in 2007 who looked like a budding star until exactly one year ago. In Wagner's first 10 PGA Tour events of 2007, he made eight cuts with three top-25 finishes, his best being a tie for ninth at the Shell Houston. He became a fantasy staple, a low-price, must-have player in all formats.

That's when the bottom fell out for Wagner as he missed 13 of the next 14 cuts and by the time he righted the ship, the fall season was upon us, fantasy golf was a memory and Wagner's prospect status looked like it had gone 12 rounds with Floyd Mayweather.

Wagner's 2008 season, before this past week, gave no hint that he was ready to reclaim his place among the good young players on tour, as he'd made a mere three cuts in nine events. But for four rounds in his native Texas, Wagner hit fairways from everywhere on the course and then putted the greens flawlessly.

In short, he got "it" back and now he's headed to Augusta National.

Of course, someone else got "it" back this week at the Shell Houston Open.

Me.

After I was forced to take a week's hiatus from the column, my teams suffered from neglect and underperformed at the Zurich. This week, the only thing that kept my recommendations from being unblemished was Adam Scott's illness-driven withdrawal in an event he looked like he still could've won. The other seven guys I pimped all finished in the top 26 for the week, with special props going to Bob Estes for finishing tied for sixth despite not having finished better than 33rd in any event so far in 2008. Fred Couples also notched 20 birdies, which was helpful to say the least. And finally, Anthony Kim, whom I still love long-term, embraced his "Chunked Flop" status and missed the cut by three strokes.

In short, I can only hope that the Shell Houston Open was a tune-up for the Masters for me, as well as the guys on Tour.

The fact is that in ESPN Best Ball, the Masters doesn't count any more than the Mayakoba Classic, since the majors aren't weighted in any way in our format. However, there is a special one-time version of Best Ball for the Masters that's perfect for first-timers and long-timers alike.

But what should be noted is that the Masters and all the majors are a chance to really move in the standings because there likely will be so few players who make a lot of birdies. Owners who pick the right sleeper who actually performs or the top player who blows away the field could wind up in the top 5 percent just on the strength of that one savvy call alone.

A year ago, anyone who started Zach Johnson learned that lesson in a glorious way, though there are reasons to think this year's biggest surprises won't be in the same mold. A year ago the weather turned cold, dry and windy at Augusta National, raising scores and punishing players who couldn't play under total control. This year, the weather forecast calls for mild temperatures, some clouds and even some rain, suggesting Augusta National will play long -- it is the third-longest course in major championship history -- and a little softer, offering a bonus to elite players who have length and hot putters.

The other thing to remember is that the cut works differently in the Masters. The top 44 players play the weekend, plus any other players who are within 10 strokes of the lead. This means that if one player sprints out to a silly lead in the opening 36 holes, it's very possible that fewer than 50 players will get to play four rounds. Finding a foursome that will contribute 16 total rounds is key.

So let's see who might just win you a fantasy green jacket.

Most weeks, I just mention Tiger Woods here and move on, but at the Masters, he deserves more than the passing mention. Tiger has won four career green jackets and hasn't finished worse than third at Augusta National in the past three years. There is a chance that no one will post a score significantly under par for the week, but if only one player does go low, it'll be Tiger. $18 million isn't cheap, but it's fair for Tiger as he attempts the first leg of what some are expecting to be a Grand Slam season.

Not to go all Zen on you, but for every yin, there is a yang. Phil Mickelson has won two of the past four Masters titles, and before finishing 24th a year ago, he had posted eight consecutive top-10s at Augusta National. Other than Tiger's, Mickelson's game is the one that most plays to the conditions expected at this week's event. He can hit it long, and his spectacular short game will allow him to see some short putts on Augusta's undulating greens. It may seem simplistic to say that you need to roster Mickelson at $15.2 million if you don't have Tiger, but that doesn't mean it isn't true.

When you spend $13.7 million on Luke Donald, you get a nice blend of a guy whose track record at Augusta National will open your eyes and a player whose game has been exceptionally sharp in 2008. Donald has managed top-10 finishes in two of the three years he has played the Masters, and the ability to contend under different conditions is a testament to his creativity and proof that a great putter can score on any course. Also, Donald has two top-three finishes in 2008 despite playing only four stroke-play events in the States all year. Although he's not a true front-runner, no one would be shocked if Donald won the Masters this year.

Sometimes, you do need to just go with the hot hand heading into a major, and when the guy with the hottest hand also has a U.S Open title to his credit, it makes it easier to embrace him. Geoff Ogilvy has three top-10 finishes in his past four tournaments, including a win over an elite field at the WGC-CA Championship and a runner-up result a week ago at the Shell Houston Open on a course set up to mimic the conditions at Augusta National. The icing on Ogilvy's cake is that he has made the cut in both of his previous trips to the Masters, suggesting he is both low-risk and high-reward.

Every penny of your fantasy budget counts this week when you have every great player in the world at your disposal. That's why I can't let you go out and spend $12.2 million on Woody Austin. Sure, a quick look at his results this year might suggest he's hot, thanks to a fourth-place finish at the Zurich Classic and no missed cuts since late January. However, that fourth in New Orleans was actually a setback for the emotional Austin, since he felt he choked away the win (his words, not mine.) Also, Austin has only played at the Masters once before in his long career, and that was a missed cut in 1996, when the course was about 500 yards shorter. He'll be one of the shorter hitters in the field, playing on a long course with maddening greens, and he's one of the 30 most-expensive players on the board. Pass.

Here's what I wrote about Nick Watney in ESPN The Magazine's Masters preview three weeks ago:

"He's in the top 10 in par-5 scoring through March 17, and long enough off the tee (26th on tour) to exploit birdie opportunities. A first-time tour winner in 2007, he isn't in the World Golf Rankings' Top 100 yet, but that will change."

Watney's par-5 scoring has dipped a bit since then, but he's still elite in the category, ranking in the top 25, and that's key, because at Augusta, the longest holes are the ones where some birdies can be made. At $11.3 million, Watney has the length and accuracy to surprise, and hey, those Lexus ads made it seem as if he is eventually going to be hanging out with the Sneads and Hogans of the game. No better way to do it than winning the Masters.

I may have to rename this section "Why you should roster Fred Couples as long as his back is hurting." Couples has been playing beautiful golf, coming off a fourth-place finish at the Shell Houston Open, and he has missed the cut only once all year. But that's not the cut-related news that makes Couples so inviting to fantasy owners. Boom Boom has made 23 cuts in a row at the Masters -- a number that represents every time he has entered in his career. Making the cut this year will give him the all-time record for consecutive cuts at the Masters. The course fits Couples like a glove, and his price -- $11 million -- is just the right size as well.

Of all the players I'm pimping this week, Brett Wetterich has the least "hard" data supporting his value. In 2007, his first year playing at Augusta National, he actually owned the clubhouse lead after each of the first two rounds. He then played horrendously on Saturday, shooting an ugly 83, and couldn't recover. But remember, that was his first time playing a tournament on those hallowed holes, and before the weather changed the course's personality, the layout suited him beautifully. Wetterich is a long hitter and makes a ton of birdies, even though his putter has been cold this year. For $9.7 million, you're making a risky pick, but if the conditions stay somewhat soft, Wetterich could be the guy who makes Tiger affordable on your roster.

Not to brag, but Humble was kind to both of my squads this week. Even losing Adam Scott after two rounds wasn't too big an issue as Team Tigerless was able to still finish in the 88th percentile without him. However, Team Tiger made a big move, pulling ahead for the segment and closing the gap a bit in the overall race between the two teams. Here are this week's results:

Team Tigerless: 99th percentile overall (88th for the week, 93rd for segment two)
Team Tiger: 97th percentile overall (99th for the week, 95th for segment two)

Clearly, a good Masters for Tiger (and Team Tiger with him) is all it may take for the yearlong race to get rather tight. In the interest of making sure there's a chance for some real changes, I've made sure only one player is on both squads. Here are my rosters:

Team Tigerless: Mickelson, Ogilvy, John Senden, and Couples (Bench: John Merrick)
Team Tiger: Woods, Watney, Couples and Wetterich (Bench: Padraig Harrington)